Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 12.640495 14.481531 16.468102 18.767428 21.351693 24.162651 27.447784
2025-03-09 9.918939 12.405275 15.299417 18.902356 23.251527 28.315162 34.639116
2025-03-16 8.352325 11.058963 14.367400 18.681660 24.128455 30.743291 39.347723
2025-03-23 7.322567 10.200028 13.872642 18.860394 25.407378 33.651941 44.754953
2025-03-30 6.703881 9.753077 13.790936 19.466344 27.163016 37.152180 50.995890
2025-04-06 5.930826 8.994721 13.196853 19.297991 27.829147 39.216899 55.423450
2025-04-13 5.041022 7.965087 12.115804 18.335865 27.294633 39.580526 57.514521
2025-04-20 4.686229 7.670268 12.032797 18.748566 28.666510 42.580133 63.325747
2025-04-27 4.362958 7.384772 11.927598 19.100439 29.944711 45.483119 69.111899
2025-05-04 3.966966 6.943319 11.543819 18.992179 30.515822 47.373246 73.504509
2025-05-11 3.582595 6.480574 11.083427 18.719824 30.801400 48.831426 77.300073
2025-05-18 3.305165 6.166424 10.827959 18.739331 31.517420 50.940774 82.132153
2025-05-25 3.081693 5.929429 10.687556 18.946116 32.558958 53.627109 88.022290
2025-06-01 2.849323 5.654672 10.461894 18.994179 33.344434 55.951916 93.463319
2025-06-08 2.601516 5.325807 10.113554 18.802289 33.710160 57.611160 97.905572
2025-06-15 2.436662 5.133809 9.985525 18.971778 34.673658 60.252038 104.001613
2025-06-22 2.352587 5.086982 10.109825 19.584562 36.411298 64.213098 112.378130
2025-06-29 2.164527 4.818299 9.808304 19.414060 36.783031 65.932335 117.147175
2025-07-06 1.891072 4.350249 9.097758 18.447117 35.695358 65.149117 117.712115
2025-07-13 1.813664 4.278564 9.133741 18.861927 37.083782 68.610133 125.535056
2025-07-20 1.734311 4.194927 9.139040 19.215761 38.374223 71.948662 133.269521
2025-07-27 1.610141 4.001937 8.912533 19.106897 38.802697 73.796551 138.497087
2025-08-03 1.479605 3.781557 8.613070 18.833067 38.902573 75.059428 142.740520